Supply | Brunswick County Realtors rallied Thursday to celebrate three consecutive months of gains in home sales over 2007 numbers, potentially a sign that the wounded housing market is on the rebound locally.
But UNCW economics professor William Hall said it's too soon to tell. He also told the Realtors he has downgraded his previous forecast of economic growth this year in the three-county region from 4.5 percent to 3 percent.
Hall also said that actual growth in 2007 was 3 percent, rather than the projected 4.5 percent.
"There was a dramatic slowdown in the retail trade sector of the local economy, and that's a pretty important part," Hall said in an interview after the Realtors' meeting.
"There has been a less dramatic slowdown in employment growth and an increase in unemployment," he said.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that unemployment in the Wilmington area was 4.5 percent in April, up a full percentage point from April 2007.
Hall also cited the effects of the price of gas at the pump and a resulting reduction in discretionary income.
Members of the Brunswick County Association of Realtors said the recent housing reports for Brunswick County are reason enough to launch their "2008 is Great for Real Estate" campaign. The association created a Web site, www.2008isGreatforRealEstate.com, to try to spread the upbeat message.
"We feel like the bottom has happened, and now is the time to buy real estate," said Grady Watkins, president of the association's board of directors. "It's going to start trending upward."
Though Hall wouldn't go quite that far, he said sales of existing homes seem to be "fluctuating around a maybe cyclical low."
Realtors in Brunswick County sold 137 existing homes in April 2008, compared with 116 in April 2007, according to information from the N.C. Association of Realtors.
The Brunswick association was also the only one in the state to show a year-to-year increase in existing home sales in March and one of only two to show an increase in February.
Compared with the rest of the state, Watkins said, Brunswick County is "one of the bright spots."
Shannan Bowen: 755-6307
shannan.bowen@starnewsonline.com
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